Green-blue areas hence show emissions from the transport sector and the joint building and industry demand sector, respectively. Note that the S5 scenario reports the building and industry sector emissions jointly. The bottom row shows how various CO 2 contributions are deployed and used in the four illustrative pathway archetypes (LED, S1, S2, S5, referred to as P1, P2, P3, and P4 in the Summary for Policymakers) used in this chapter (see Section 2.3.1.1). The top-right panel provides a schematic legend explaining all CO 2 emissions contributions to global CO 2 emissions. Ranges at the bottom of the top-left panel show the 10th–90th percentile range (thin line) and interquartile range (thick line) of the time that global CO 2 emissions reach net zero per pathway class, and for all pathways classes combined. The top-left panel shows global net CO 2 emissions in Below-1.5☌, 1.5☌-low-overshoot (OS), and 1.5☌-high-OS pathways, with the four illustrative 1.5☌-consistent pathway archetypes of this chapter highlighted. So long as there are gross total CO 2 emission sources (thin black line above the axis), CDR approaches will be needed.Įvolution and Break Down of Global Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions until 2100 The thick line reflects the combination of contributions from emission sources above the horizontal axis and sinks removing CO 2 from the atmosphere below the axis. In Figure 1 (top right panel), the thick black line in the schematic summarizes the net amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere. CDR could potentially play a key role on such a path to net-zero emissions by mid-century by speeding up the rate at which emissions are reduced. Research summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5☌, or IPCC SR15 ( Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018), finds that balancing carbon emissions needs to happen around the middle of the century and even earlier for limiting climate change to 1.5☌ with no overshoot see the top left panel in Figure 1 Given the need to balance carbon emissions, if emissions overall remain net positive, limiting warming still implies contributions from CDR. Such sinks can be natural or technology based and are called CO 2 removal (CDR) interventions. Such sources must be balanced by sinks that remove carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. Despite our best efforts to mitigate emissions, throughout this century, human activities in the energy and land-use sectors are likely to retain some emission sources, such as from the transportation sector. The biggest contributors to emissions are energy production and land use, including both land conversion and emissions from industrial agriculture. The Paris Agreement calls on national governments to limit climate change to well below 2.0☌ and to pursue efforts toward 1.5☌ above pre-industrial temperatures. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO 2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from human activities to net zero.
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